Nigeria is now battling with many challenges
The growth of democracy on the continent
Nigerians and the whole world are intensely focused on this
year’s elections
Boko Haram has sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism map
Nigeria will return to its stabilising role in West Africa
On corruption, there will be no confusion as to where I stand
The work of making Nigeria great is not yet done
Buhari speaks at Chatham House, London on February 26,
2015.
(APC Press Releases) – Permit me to start by thanking
Chatham House for the invitation to talk about this important
topic at this crucial time. When speaking about Nigeria
overseas, I normally prefer to be my country’s public relations
and marketing officer, extolling her virtues and hoping to
attract investments and tourists. But as we all know, Nigeria
is now battling with many challenges, and if I refer to them, I
do so only to impress on our friends in the United Kingdom
that we are quite aware of our shortcomings and are doing
our best to address them.
The 2015 general election in Nigeria is generating a lot of
interests within and outside the country. This is
understandable. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and
largest economy, is at a defining moment, a moment that has
great implications beyond the democratic project and beyond
the borders of my dear country.
So let me say upfront that the global interest in Nigeria’s
landmark election is not misplaced at all and indeed should
be commended; for this is an election that has serious import
for the world. I urge the international community to continue
to focus on Nigeria at this very critical moment. Given
increasing global linkages, it is in our collective interests that
the postponed elections should hold on the rescheduled
dates; that they should be free and fair; that their outcomes
should be respected by all parties; and that any form of
extension, under whichever guise, is unconstitutional and will
not be tolerated.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the
USSR in 1991, the collapse of communism and the end of the
Cold War, democracy became the dominant and most
preferred system of government across the globe. That global
transition has been aptly captured as the triumph of
democracy and the ‘most pre-eminent political idea of our
time.’ On a personal note, the phased end of the USSR was a
turning point for me. It convinced me that change can be
brought about without firing a single shot.
As you all know, I had been a military head of state in Nigeria
for twenty months. We intervened because we were unhappy
with the state of affairs in our country. We wanted to arrest
the drift. Driven by patriotism, influenced by the prevalence
and popularity of such drastic measures all over Africa and
elsewhere, we fought our way to power. But the global
triumph of democracy has shown that another and a
preferable path to change is possible. It is an important
lesson I have carried with me since, and a lesson that is not
lost on the African continent.
In the last two decades, democracy has grown strong roots in
Africa. Elections, once so rare, are now so commonplace. As
at the time I was a military head of state between 1983 and
1985, only four African countries held regular multi-party
elections. But the number of electoral democracies in Africa,
according to Freedom House, jumped to 10 in 1992/1993 then
to 18 in 1994/1995 and to 24 in 2005/2006. According to the
New York Times, 42 of the 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
conducted multi-party elections between 1990 and 2002.
The newspaper also reported that between 2000 and 2002,
ruling parties in four African countries (Senegal, Mauritius,
Ghana and Mali) peacefully handed over power to victorious
opposition parties. In addition, the proportion of African
countries categorized as not free by Freedom House declined
from 59% in 1983 to 35% in 2003. Without doubt, Africa has
been part of the current global wave of democratisation.
But the growth of democracy on the continent has been
uneven. According to Freedom House, the number of electoral
democracies in Africa slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in
2011/2012; while the percentage of countries categorised as
‘not free’ assuming for the sake of argument that we accept
their definition of “free” increased from 35% in 2003 to 41% in
2013. Also, there have been some reversals at different times
in Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Cote D’Ivoire,
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali, Madagascar,
Mauritania and Togo. We can choose to look at the glass of
democracy in Africa as either half full or half empty.
While you can’t have representative democracy without
elections, it is equally important to look at the quality of the
elections and to remember that mere elections do not
democracy make. It is globally agreed that democracy is not
an event, but a journey. And that the destination of that
journey is democratic consolidation – that state where
democracy has become so rooted and so routine and widely
accepted by all actors.
With this important destination in mind, it is clear that though
many African countries now hold regular elections, very few
of them have consolidated the practice of democracy. It is
important to also state at this point that just as with
elections, a consolidated democracy cannot be an end by
itself. I will argue that it is not enough to hold a series of
elections or even to peacefully alternate power among parties.
It is much more important that the promise of democracy
goes beyond just allowing people to freely choose their
leaders. It is much more important that democracy should
deliver on the promise of choice, of freedoms, of security of
lives and property, of transparency and accountability, of rule
of law, of good governance and of shared prosperity. It is very
important that the promise embedded in the concept of
democracy, the promise of a better life for the generality of
the people, is not delivered in the breach.
Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all know,
Nigeria’s fourth republic is in its 16th year and this general
election will be the fifth in a row. This is a major sign of
progress for us, given that our first republic lasted five years
and three months, the second republic ended after four years
and two months and the third republic was a still-birth.
However, longevity is not the only reason why everyone is so
interested in this election.
The major difference this time around is that for the very first
time since transition to civil rule in 1999, the ruling Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its stiffest opposition so far
from our party the All Progressives Congress (APC). We once
had about 50 political parties, but with no real competition.
Now Nigeria is transitioning from a dominant party system to
a competitive electoral polity, which is a major marker on the
road to democratic consolidation. As you know, peaceful
alternation of power through competitive elections have
happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi and Mauritius in recent
times. The prospects of democratic consolidation in Africa
will be further brightened when that eventually happens in
Nigeria.
But there are other reasons why Nigerians and the whole
world are intensely focused on this year’s elections, chief of
which is that the elections are holding in the shadow of huge
security, economic and social uncertainties in Africa’s most
populous country and largest economy. On insecurity, there is
a genuine cause for worry, both within and outside Nigeria.
Apart from the civil war era, at no other time in our history
has Nigeria been this insecure.
Boko Haram has sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism map,
killing more than 13,000 of our nationals, displacing millions
internally and externally, and at a time holding on to portions
of our territory the size of Belgium. What has been
consistently lacking is the required leadership in our battle
against insurgency. I, as a retired general and a former head
of state, have always known about our soldiers: they are
capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and always ready to do
their duty in the service of our country.
You all can bear witness to the gallant role of our military in
Burma, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone,
Liberia, Darfur and in many other peacekeeping operations in
several parts of the world. But in the matter of this
insurgency, our soldiers have neither received the necessary
support nor the required incentives to tackle this problem.
The government has also failed in any effort towards a multi-
dimensional response to this problem leading to a situation
in which we have now become dependent on our neighbours
to come to our rescue.
Let me assure you that if I am elected president, the world will
have no cause to worry about Nigeria as it has had to
recently; that Nigeria will return to its stabilizing role in West
Africa; and that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost
to the enemy because we will pay special attention to the
welfare of our soldiers in and out of service, we will give them
adequate and modern arms and ammunitions to work with,
we will improve intelligence gathering and border controls to
choke Boko Haram’s financial and equipment channels, we
will be tough on terrorism and tough on its root causes by
initiating a comprehensive economic development plan
promoting infrastructural development, job creation,
agriculture and industry in the affected areas. We will always
act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester,
and I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the front and
return Nigeria to its leadership role in regional and
international efforts to combat terrorism.
On the economy, the fall in prices of oil has brought our
economic and social stress into full relief. After the rebasing
exercise in April 2014, Nigeria overtook South Africa as
Africa’s largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at $510
billion and our economy rated 26th in the world. Also on the
bright side, inflation has been kept at single digit for a while
and our economy has grown at an average of 7% for about a
decade.
But it is more of paper growth, a growth that, on account of
mismanagement, profligacy and corruption, has not translated
to human development or shared prosperity. A development
economist once said three questions should be asked about a
country’s development: one, what is happening to poverty?
Two, what is happening to unemployment? And three, what is
happening to inequality?
The answers to these questions in Nigeria show that the
current administration has created two economies in one
country, a sorry tale of two nations: one economy for a few
who have so much in their tiny island of prosperity; and the
other economy for the many who have so little in their vast
ocean of misery.
Even by official figures, 33.1% of Nigerians live in extreme
poverty. That’s at almost 60 million, almost the population of
the United Kingdom. There is also the unemployment crisis
simmering beneath the surface, ready to explode at the
slightest stress, with officially 23.9% of our adult population
and almost 60% of our youth unemployed. We also have one
of the highest rates of inequalities in the world.
With all these, it is not surprising that our performance on
most governance and development indicators (like Mo Ibrahim
Index on African Governance and UNDP’s Human Development
Index.) are unflattering. With fall in the prices of oil, which
accounts for more than 70% of government revenues, and lack
of savings from more than a decade of oil boom, the poor will
be disproportionately impacted.
In the face of dwindling revenues, a good place to start the
repositioning of Nigeria’s economy is to swiftly tackle two ills
that have ballooned under the present administration: waste
and corruption. And in doing this, I will, if elected, lead the
way, with the force of personal example.
On corruption, there will be no confusion as to where I stand.
Corruption will have no place and the corrupt will not be
appointed into my administration. First and foremost, we will
plug the holes in the budgetary process. Revenue producing
entities such as NNPC and Customs and Excise will have one
set of books only. Their revenues will be publicly disclosed
and regularly audited. The institutions of state dedicated to
fighting corruption will be given independence and
prosecutorial authority without political interference.
But I must emphasise that any war waged on corruption
should not be misconstrued as settling old scores or a witch-
hunt. I’m running for President to lead Nigeria to prosperity
and not adversity.
In reforming the economy, we will use savings that arise from
blocking these leakages and the proceeds recovered from
corruption to fund our party’s social investments programmes
in education, health, and safety nets such as free school
meals for children, emergency public works for unemployed
youth and pensions for the elderly.
As a progressive party, we must reform our political economy
to unleash the pent-up ingenuity and productivity of the
Nigerian people thus freeing them from the curse of poverty.
We will run a private sector-led economy but maintain an
active role for government through strong regulatory
oversight and deliberate interventions and incentives to
diversify the base of our economy, strengthen productive
sectors, improve the productive capacities of our people and
create jobs for our teeming youths.
In short, we will run a functional economy driven by a
worldview that sees growth not as an end by itself, but as a
tool to create a society that works for all, rich and poor alike.
On March 28, Nigeria has a decision to make. To vote for the
continuity of failure or to elect progressive change. I believe
the people will choose wisely.
In sum, I think that given its strategic importance, Nigeria can
trigger a wave of democratic consolidation in Africa. But as a
starting point we need to get this critical election right by
ensuring that they go ahead, and depriving those who want
to scuttle it the benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy.
That way, we will all see democracy and democratic
consolidation as tools for solving pressing problems in a
sustainable way, not as ends in themselves.
Permit me to close this discussion on a personal note. I have
heard and read references to me as a former dictator in many
respected British newspapers including the well regarded
Economist. Let me say without sounding defensive that
dictatorship goes with military rule, though some might be
less dictatorial than others. I take responsibility for whatever
happened under my watch.
I cannot change the past. But I can change the present and
the future. So before you is a former military ruler and a
converted democrat who is ready to operate under democratic
norms and is subjecting himself to the rigours of democratic
elections for the fourth time.
You may ask: why is he doing this? This is a question I ask
myself all the time too. And here is my humble answer:
because the work of making Nigeria great is not yet done,
because I still believe that change is possible, this time
through the ballot, and most importantly, because I still have
the capacity and the passion to dream and work for a Nigeria
that will be respected again in the comity of nations and that
all Nigerians will be proud of.
